Supplier change, market competition and enterprise innovation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study enterprise innovation in the perspective of external supplier relationship. On this purpose, this paper examines the impact of supplier change on enterprise innovation with the moderating role of market competition.Design/methodology/approachUsing 2012–2020 empirical data of Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises, this paper investigates the relationship among supplier change, market competition and enterprise innovation through a two-way interaction model.FindingsThe results show that supplier change has a negative impact on enterprise innovation. And market competition intensifies the negative relationship between supplier change and enterprise innovation. Additional analyses indicate that the main effect and the moderating effect are more significant when the enterprise is non-state-owned or has lower ownership concentration.Originality/valueThis paper studies enterprise innovation from the perspective of external stakeholders. It focuses on supplier relationship in a dynamic variation view, instead of the traditional static ones. Moreover, this paper explores the contingency effect of market competition and gives practical implications for managers to adjust innovation strategy flexibly.

PANACEA: An Automated Misinformation Detection System on COVID-19

In this demo, we introduce a web-based misinformation detection system PANACEA on COVID-19 related claims, which has two modules, fact-checking and rumour detection. Our fact-checking module, which is supported by novel natural language inference methods with a self-attention network, outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. It is also able to give automated veracity assessment and ranked supporting evidence with the stance towards the claim to be checked. In addition, PANACEA adapts the bi-directional graph convolutional networks model, which is able to detect rumours based on comment networks of related tweets, instead of relying on the knowledge base. This rumour detection module assists by warning the users in the early stages when a knowledge base may not be available. © 2023 Association for Computational Linguistics.

A Dynamic-Static Dual Input Deep Neural Network Algorithm for Diagnosing COVID-19 by Cough

The COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019) has caused serious impacts worldwide. Many scholars have done a lot of research on the prevention and control of the epidemic. The diagnosis of COVID-19 by cough is non-contact, low-cost, and easy-access, however, such research is still relatively scarce in China. Mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) feature can only represent the static sound feature, while the first-order differential MFCC feature can also reflect the dynamic feature of sound. In order to better prevent and treat COVID-19, the paper proposes a dynamic-static dual input deep neural network algorithm for diagnosing COVID-19 by cough. Based on Coswara dataset, cough audio is clipped, MFCC and first-order differential MFCC features are extracted, and a dynamic and static feature dual-input neural network model is trained. The model adopts a statistic pooling layer so that different length of MFCC features can be input. The experiment results show the proposed algorithm can significantly improve the recognition accuracy, recall rate, specificity, and F1-score compared with the existing models. © 2023 Chinese Institute of Electronics. All rights reserved.

Civil Aviation Customer Satisfaction Automatic Evaluation System

In 2021, the airline industry was affected by COVID-19, and many airlines suffered losses. The main reason for the loss were the decline in revenue and the surge in costs. Therefore, in terms of creating the competitive advantage of airlines, "price war" is no longer applicable, and improving service quality has become an effective means. Customer satisfaction is the most effective indicator to measure service quality. In this study, a satisfaction evaluation system is established based on structural equation model and customer satisfaction importance matrix. Then, a questionnaire is designed to analyze the influence of different factors on customer satisfaction. The research finds that brand image and perceived quality have a great impact on customer satisfaction. In addition, some suggestions for airlines to improve customer satisfaction are given. © 2023 SPIE.

Spatial Interactions and the Spread of COVID-19: A Network Perspective

We use unique data on the travel history of confirmed patients at a daily frequency across 31 provinces in China to study how spatial interactions influence the geographic spread of pandemic COVID-19. We develop and simultaneously estimate a structural model of dynamic disease transmission network formation and spatial interaction. This allows us to understand what externalities the disease risk associated with a single place may create for the entire country. We find a positive and significant spatial interaction effect that strongly influences the duration and severity of pandemic COVID-19. And there exists heterogeneity in this interaction effect: the spatial spillover effect from the source province is significantly higher than from other provinces. Further counterfactual policy analysis shows that targeting the key province can improve the effectiveness of policy interventions for containing the geographic spread of pandemic COVID-19, and the effect of such targeted policy decreases with an increase in the time of delay.

The Syncretic Effect of Dual-Source Data on Affective Computing in Online Learning Contexts: A Perspective from Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism

Affective computing (AC) has been regarded as a relevant approach to identifying online learners' mental states and predicting their learning performance. Previous research mainly used one single-source data set, typically learners' facial expression, to compute learners' affection. However, a single facial expression may represent different affections in various head poses. This study proposed a dual-source data approach to solve the problem. Facial expression and head pose are two typical data sources that can be captured from online learning videos. The current study collected a dual-source data set of facial expressions and head poses from an online learning class in a middle school. A deep learning neural network using AlexNet with an attention mechanism was developed to verify the syncretic effect on affective computing of the proposed dual-source fusion strategy. The results show that the dual-source fusion approach significantly outperforms the single-source approach based on the AC recognition accuracy between the two approaches (dual-source approach using Attention-AlexNet model 80.96%;single-source approach, facial expression 76.65% and head pose 64.34%). This study contributes to the theoretical construction of the dual-source data fusion approach, and the empirical validation of the effect of the Attention-AlexNet neural network approach on affective computing in online learning contexts.

Mixup-Inf-Net: A data augmentation algorithm for segmentation of new coronary pneumonia infections

In 2020, the global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 exposed entire world to a severe health crisis. This has limited fast and accurate screening of suspected cases due to equipment shortages and and harsh testing environments. The current diagnosis of suspected cases has benefited greatly from the use of radiographic brain imaging, also including X-ray and scintigraphy, as a crucial addition to screening tests for new coronary pneumonia disease. However, it is impractical to gather enormous volumes of data quickly, which makes it difficult for depth models to be trained. To solve these problems, we obtained a new dataset by data augmentation Mixup method for the used chest CT slices. It uses lung infection segmentation (Inf-Net [1]) in a deep network and adds a learning framework with semi-supervised to form a Mixup-Inf-Net semi-supervised learning framework model to identify COVID-19 infection area from chest CT slices. The system depends primarily on unlabeled data and merely a minimal amount of annotated data is required;therefore, the unlabeled data generated by Mixup provides good assistance. Our framework can be used to improve improve learning and performance. The SemiSeg dataset and the actual 3D CT images that we produced are used in a variety of tests, and the analysis shows that Mixup-Inf-Net semi-supervised outperforms most SOTA segmentation models learning framework model in this study, which also enhances segmentation performance. © 2023 SPIE.

Build an Agent-Based Model for COVID-19 Effect of Mitigation Policies

Non-Drug Intervention (NDI) is one of the important means to prevent and control the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the implementation of this series of measures plays a key role in the development of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of different mitigation measures on the situation of the COVID 19, and effectively respond to the prevention and control situation in the "post-epidemic era". The present work is based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Remove-Susceptible (SEIRS) Model, and adapted the agent-based model (ABM) to construct the epidemic prevention and control model framework to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic from three aspects: social distance, personal protection, and bed resources. The experiment results show that the above NDI are effective mitigation measures for epidemic prevention and control, and can play a positive role in the recurrence of COVID-19, but a single measure cannot prevent the recurrence of infection peaks and curb the spread of the epidemic;When social distance and personal protection rules are out of control, bed resources will become an important guarantee for epidemic prevention and control. Although the spread of the epidemic cannot be curbed, it can slow down the recurrence of the peak of the epidemic;When people abide by social distance and personal protection rules, the pressure on bed resources will be eased. At the same time, under the interaction of the three measures, not only the death toll can be reduced, but the spread of the epidemic can also be effectively curbed. © 2022 ACM.

Detection of Multiple Structural Breaks in Large Covariance Matrices

This article studies multiple structural breaks in large contemporaneous covariance matrices of high-dimensional time series satisfying an approximate factor model. The breaks in the second-order moment structure of the common components are due to sudden changes in either factor loadings or covariance of latent factors, requiring appropriate transformation of the factor models to facilitate estimation of the (transformed) common factors and factor loadings via the classical principal component analysis. With the estimated factors and idiosyncratic errors, an easy-to-implement CUSUM-based detection technique is introduced to consistently estimate the location and number of breaks and correctly identify whether they originate in the common or idiosyncratic error components. The algorithms of Wild Binary Segmentation for Covariance (WBS-Cov) and Wild Sparsified Binary Segmentation for Covariance (WSBS-Cov) are used to estimate breaks in the common and idiosyncratic error components, respectively. Under some technical conditions, the asymptotic properties of the proposed methodology are derived with near-optimal rates (up to a logarithmic factor) achieved for the estimated breaks. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed method and its comparison with other existing approaches. We finally apply our method to study the contemporaneous covariance structure of daily returns of S&P 500 constituents and identify a few breaks including those occurring during the 2007–2008 financial crisis and the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. An package "” is provided to implement the proposed algorithms.

Nonlinear dynamics modeling and epidemic forecast of COVID-19

To study the spreading trend and risk of COVID-19, according to the characteristics of COVID-19, this paper proposes a new transmission dynamic model named SLIR(susceptible-low-risk-infected-recovered), based on the classic SIR model by considering government control and personal protection measures. The equilibria, stability and bifurcation of the model are analyzed to reveal the propagation mechanism of COVID-19. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, the least square method is employed to estimate the model parameters based on the real data of COVID-19 in the United States. Finally, the model is used to predict and analyze COVID-19 in the United States. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional SIR model, this model can better predict the spreading trend of COVID-19 in the United States, and the actual official data has further verified its effectiveness. The proposed model can effectively simulate the spreading of COVID-19 and help governments choose appropriate prevention and control measures. Copyright ©2023 Control and Decision.

Predicting the climate impact of aviation for en-route emissions: the algorithmic climate change function submodel ACCF 1.0 of EMAC 2.53

Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre.In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.

Study on Infection Probabilities of COVID-19 by SIR Network

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Related Diseases (COVID-19) is now one of the most challenging and concerning epidemics, which has been affecting the world so much. After that, countries around the world have been actively developing vaccines to deal with the sudden disease. How to carry out more efficient epidemic prevention has also become a problem of our concern. Unlike traditional SIR disease transmission models, network percolation has unique advantages in disease immune modelling, which makes it closer to reality in the simulation. This article introduces the study of SIR percolation network on infection probabilities of COVID-19, and proposes a method to preventing the spread of disease. © 2022 IEEE.

Exploring Influential Factors of Free-Floating Bike-Sharing Usage Frequency before and after COVID-19

In order to better understand the impact of COVID-19 on the free-floating bike-sharing (FFBS) system and the potential role of FFBS played in the pandemic period, this study explores the impact mechanism of travel frequency of FFBS users before and after the pandemic. Using the online questionnaire collected in Nanjing, China, we first analyze the changes of travel frequency, travel distance, and travel duration in these two periods. Then, two ordered logit models are applied to explore the contributing factors of the weekly trip frequency of FFBS users before and after COVID-19. The results show that: (1) While the overall travel duration and travel distance of FFBS users decreased after the pandemic, the trip frequency of FFBS users increased as the travel duration increased. (2) Since COVID-19, attitude perception variables of the comfort level and the low travel price have had significantly positive impacts on the weekly trip frequency of FFBS users. (3) Respondents who use FFBS as a substitution for public transport are more likely to travel frequently in a week after the outbreak of COVID-19. (4) The travel time in off-peak hours of working days, weekends, and holidays has a significantly positive correlation with the trip frequency of FFBS users. Finally, several relevant policy recommendations and management strategies are proposed for the operation and development of FFBS during the similar disruptive public health crisis.

Concept Drift Adaptation Methods under the Deep Learning Framework: A Literature Review

With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution, data-driven decision making has also become an integral part of decision making. At the same time, deep learning is one of the core technologies of the fourth industrial revolution that have become vital in decision making. However, in the era of epidemics and big data, the volume of data has increased dramatically while the sources have become progressively more complex, making data distribution highly susceptible to change. These situations can easily lead to concept drift, which directly affects the effectiveness of prediction models. How to cope with such complex situations and make timely and accurate decisions from multiple perspectives is a challenging research issue. To address this challenge, we summarize concept drift adaptation methods under the deep learning framework, which is beneficial to help decision makers make better decisions and analyze the causes of concept drift. First, we provide an overall introduction to concept drift, including the definition, causes, types, and process of concept drift adaptation methods under the deep learning framework. Second, we summarize concept drift adaptation methods in terms of discriminative learning, generative learning, hybrid learning, and others. For each aspect, we elaborate on the update modes, detection modes, and adaptation drift types of concept drift adaptation methods. In addition, we briefly describe the characteristics and application fields of deep learning algorithms using concept drift adaptation methods. Finally, we summarize common datasets and evaluation metrics and present future directions.

Social Distance with Tourists in U.S. Counties with the Highest Historical Numbers of Reported COVID-19 Cases

With destinations steadily ‘opening back up for business' (while COVID-19 cases are still high in many areas), there is an increasing need to consider residents. Integrating the cognitive appraisal theory and the affect theory of exchange, this work tests a structural model examining the degree to which residents' perceptions of COVID-19 precautionary measures explain emotions directed toward visitors, and ultimately their willingness to engage in shared behaviors with tourists. Data were collected from 530 residents in 25 U.S. counties with the highest percentages of historical COVID-19 cases per population. A total of 10 of the 12 tested hypotheses were significant, contributing to 60% and 85% of the variance explained in contending and accommodating emotions, and 53% and 50% of the variance explained in engaging in less intimate–distal and more intimate–proximal behaviors with tourists. The implications highlight the complementary use of the two frameworks in explaining residents' preference for engagement in less intimate–distal interactions with tourists.

Investigation of demographic implicit discrimination and disparate impact in chest radiography image-based AI for COVID-19 severity prediction

It is important to evaluate medical imaging artificial intelligence (AI) models for possible implicit discrimination (ability to distinguish between subgroups not related to the specific clinical task of the AI model) and disparate impact (difference in outcome rate between subgroups). We studied potential implicit discrimination and disparate impact of a published deep learning/AI model for the prediction of ICU admission for COVID-19 within 24 hours of imaging. The IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant dataset contained 8,357 chest radiography exams from February 2020-January 2022 (12% ICU admission within 24 hours) and was separated by patient into training, validation, and test sets (64%, 16%, 20% split). The AI output was evaluated in two demographic categories: sex assigned at birth (subgroups male and female) and self-reported race (subgroups Black/African-American and White). We failed to show statistical evidence that the model could implicitly discriminate between members of subgroups categorized by race based on prediction scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC: median [95% confidence interval, CI]: 0.53 [0.48, 0.57]) but there was some marginal evidence of implicit discrimination between members of subgroups categorized by sex (AUC: 0.54 [0.51, 0.57]). No statistical evidence for disparate impact (DI) was observed between the race subgroups (i.e. the 95% CI of the ratio of the favorable outcome rate between two subgroups included one) for the example operating point of the maximized Youden index but some evidence of disparate impact to the male subgroup based on sex was observed. These results help develop evaluation of implicit discrimination and disparate impact of AI models in the context of decision thresholds © COPYRIGHT SPIE. Downloading of the is permitted for personal use only.

Development and Application of the Just Employment Policy Assessment in American Higher Education Institutions

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the visibility of economic inequality and the inadequacy of current minimum wage laws in the United States. Changes in the minimum wage, a living wage, or just employment practices may be compelled by law or voluntarily enacted by employers. A literature search failed to yield a concise and practical tool to comprehensively assess existing just employment policies or practices in higher education institutions. This article describes the development of a concise and practical assessment based on the "Model Just Employment Policy" from the Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor at Georgetown University. The resulting Just Employment Policy Assessment is used to evaluate the publicly available policies of four disparate higher education institutions in the United States. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for future research and administrative practice.

Demand Forecasting in SCM for Automobile Industry based on Time-series Modeling

In supply chain management (SCM), product classification and demand forecasting are crucial pillars to ensure companies to have production in the right category and quantity for long-term profitability. Due to COVID-19 from 2019, the automobile industry has been seriously negatively affected as the demand dropped dramatically. Therefore, it is necessary to make reasonable product classification and accurate demand forecasting to facilitate automobile companies in SCM to reduce unpopular product manufacture and unnecessary storage costs. In this paper, the Canada automobile market has been chosen with the period from 1946 to 2022. To classify a number of different types of motor vehicles into several categories with general characteristics, K-means Clustering method is applied. With the seasonal patterns and random generated features for auto sales, the time series models ARIMA and SARIMA are adopted for demand forecasting. According to the analysis, the automobiles fitting in the category with high demand and low price are valuable for further production. In addition, SARIMA Model is more accurate and fits better than ARIMA Model for both the training and test datasets for long-term prediction. The classification and forecasting results shed light on guiding manufacturers to adjust production schemes and ensuring auto dealers to predict more accurate sales in order to optimize the strategic planning. © 2023 SPIE.

Developing Business Model Competences in the Enterprise

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 saw a growing interest in starting own business: as per the Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics, the number of applications to form new businesses filed in the U.S. was the highest compared to any other year on record, reaching the total of 5.4 million (Economic Innovation Group, 2022), while in the EU, after an initial downward trend recorded in the first and second quarters of 2020, the number of new business registrations grew again in the third quarter of that year, and this upward trend continued throughout 2021 (Eurostat, 2022). Of course, as a result of Russia's invasion on Ukraine and related economic crisis, a downward tendency could be observed, but business registration levels in the EU in the first quarter of 2022 were still higher than during the pre-COVID 19 pandemic period (2015-2019) (Eurostat, 2022) and online searches indicating and intent to open a business spiked by 76% from 2018 to 2022 (Search Engine Journal, 2022). This shows that despite many external impediments, people are still tempted to start their own business, and many influencers, motivational speakers and coaches, as well as various popular TV shows broadcast worldwide (like the Apprentice, Dragons' Den, Shark Tank or Planet of the Apps) encourage them to do so. Becoming an entrepreneur has become a goal many people, especially 20-, 30- and 40-year-olds, strive to achieve. However, many of those people fail to realise that the very entry in the business register does not automatically make them entrepreneurs or their business successful. Neither does a good (or even excellent and innovative) business idea that attracts customers, as it was in Kodak's, Blockbuster's, or Ask Jeeves' case. What is required, is the ability to stay attractive to existing and prospective customers, i.e., the ability to win and retain customers, and to adapt to the changing demands, trends and economic conditions. All this can be achieved thanks to a meticulously designed and regularly reviewed and updated business model. The aim of this paper is to present and analyse the learning process of acquiring and building competences in the area of business models with the use of different innovative tools. The results presented and discussed in this article come from surveys as well as face-to-face and on-line meetings conducted in the ProBM 2 ERASMUS+ project (Understanding and Developing Business Models in the Era of Globalisation), in which the total of 261 respondents from seven (7) European countries, i.e. Poland, Italy, Greece, Romania, Portugal, Malta, and Switzerland, took part between 2019 and 2022. From the meetings and surveys it follows that much more awareness of business models needs to be encouraged and developed, particularly as regards improving competences helping future business owners and their employees assess profitability and efficiency of their operations and ensure that the business will be a going concern. © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Intelligent Telework Internet Cost Requirement Modeling Using Optimizable Machine Learning Algorithms

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruption to the economy due to the increasing infection that affects the workforce in different sectors. The Philippine government has imposed lockdowns to control the spread of infection. This urged the different sectors to implement flexible work schedules or work from home setup. A work-from-home (WFH) setup burdens both the employee and employer by installing different equipment set-ups such as WiFi-equipped laptops, computers, tablets, or smartphones. However, the internet stability in some of the areas in the Philippines is not yet reliable. In this study, an application is used collect survey information and provide an estimate of the telework internet cost requirement of a given government employee or a given government employee implementing a work-from-home set up in their respective household. This involves survey results from different respondents who are currently on a work-from-home setup and significant factors from the survey have been analyzed using machine learning (ML) algorithms. Among the machine learning algorithms used, the ensemble bagged trees model outperformed the other ML models. This work can be extended by incorporating a wider scope of datasets from different industry doing work from home set-up. In addition, in terms of education, it is also recommended to determine the WFH set up not just with the government employee and employer but to also extend this into the education side. © 2022 IEEE.